Nervous Cattle Markets Struggle with Market Fundamentals
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension
Feeder cattle prices continue to push to unimaginable highs leaving producers and traders increasingly nervous. Last week, in Oklahoma auctions, 500-pound steers brought $451.90/cwt. ($2,260/head) and 800-pound steers were priced at $352.55/cwt. ($2,820/head). All feeder steers below 1,050 pounds brought more than $300/cwt. Those below 600 pounds were priced over $400/cwt., and all below 400 pounds were priced over $500/cwt. Feeder cattle prices, especially lightweight calf prices, have moved unseasonably higher this summer.
I sense that there is a growing feeling that this market is a bubble that is about to burst. While I share the anxiety that goes with the current cattle market, it is important to not forget the fundamentals that explain why the market is at this level and what they say about the coming months.
The calculated feeder cattle supply this year is the smallest in available data for both the January and July cattle reports. The tight feeder supply is the result of declining calf crops. Calf crops have declined the past seven years and are down 8.8% from the cyclical peak in 2018. The 2025 US calf crop is the lowest since 1941. The beef cow herd is at a cyclical (maybe) and multidecade low and is showing little sign of rebuilding. The closure of the Mexican border adds to the ever-tighter feeder cattle supply. The slow decrease in feedlot inventories in the past two years has, to some extent, masked the fact that feeder supplies were continuing to dwindle. I wrote in this newsletter in October 2024 that “The feeder cattle supply is an increasingly hollow ball that will implode at some point.” Current feeder cattle markets are a reflection of that process continuing to evolve.
So, what happens now? Producer psychology appears to be accelerating the process. Auction volumes for feeder cattle in Oklahoma are up 29.2% year-over-year the past four weeks as producers rush to catch the current market. Large numbers of calves that would normally be fall-run calves in two or three months are being sold early — frequently as unweaned calves. For example, the combined auction category for M/L #1 steers had 12.5 percent of calves commented as “unweaned” last week compared to 8.3 percent the same week last year. And this was with a total volume in the category that was up 64.0 percent yearover-year, meaning that the number of unweaned calves in this one category was up 147.5 percent from one year ago. Early feeder cattle sales are no doubt aided by good forage conditions and strong cattle performance this growing season.
Changing the timing of the fall run of calves may briefly mask the actual feeder supply situation in the country for a few weeks. Feedlot placements will likely be larger through the third quarter than otherwise would have been the case. The likelihood is that feeder cattle volumes in the fourth quarter will drop noticeably. Stocker and feedlot buyers should not expect seasonally lower feeder prices this fall.
The lingering question in the background continues to be that of heifer retention. With still no indication of significant heifer retention, the implication is that tight feeder supplies must get tighter yet in order to begin the process that will lead to eventual herd rebuilding. Herd rebuilding is slow to start and appears to be slow-paced at this time. This suggests that cattle prices will move higher and remain elevated for an extended period of time with a peak that is still in the future.
Eight Components of a Strong Preconditioning Program
by Angie Stump Denton, Bovine Veterinarian
Many spring-calving producers are thinking about weaning and marketing this year’s calf crop.
“In preparation for weaning and marketing, many producers do some level of preconditioning to add value and prepare calves for the next stages of life,” says Chris Clark, Iowa State University Extension and outreach beef specialist.
In a recent press release Clark describes preconditioning strategies and explains why it is valuable. He says there is not a solid, consistent definition for preconditioning, and the meaning of the term can differ person to person, regionally, and among various programs.
Clark says this definition summarizes his perspective on the meaning and importance of preconditioning: “Preconditioning is a set of practices and procedures applied to prepare cattle for the next phase of production. Weaning and marketing involve many potential stressors that can negatively affect beef calves: separation from dam, new environment, diet change, and new social dynamics, just to name a few. The idea of preconditioning is to prepare cattle, minimize those stressors, support health and performance, and ultimately, help cattle reach their genetic potential.”
He adds that specific preconditioning practices often include castration, dehorning, vaccination, adaptation to new feeds, and bunk breaking. Although most preconditioning practices are associated with weaning, some of these things can actually be done well ahead of time, even in the neonatal period of a calf’s life.
“Well-preconditioned cattle are the culmination of a holistic management program that starts when calves are born and arguably even while they are in-utero,” he says.
Clark shares these eight components of a strong preconditioning program:
1. Castration and dehorning procedures should be done as early as possible with appropriate anesthesia and analgesia to minimize pain and distress.
“Castration and dehorning surgeries should generally be performed within the first two to three months of life,” he says. “Dehorning should be done through genetic selection or through disbudding calves before the horns become well established.”
If these procedures have not yet been done, talk to your veterinarian about the best timing and technique. Open wounds can be a problem in the summer because of fly pressure, so it is worth some thought and discussion about how to best proceed at this time of year.
2. Vaccination to establish immunity prior to the stress of weaning and marketing.
Stress associated with weaning and marketing can cause immunosuppression, making animals more susceptible to respiratory disease and other infections. Preweaning vaccines help ensure protective antibodies are on board at weaning, which can help prevent and reduce the severity of disease.
“Work closely with your veterinarian to determine the products and vaccine schedules that make the most sense for your operation,” he says.
3. Deworming to reduce internal and external parasite load can help promote animal health and performance.
Cattle commonly consume infective nematode larvae while grazing, so strategic deworming as they are coming off of pasture into drylot or feedyard settings can make a lot of sense.
4. Implanting with growth-promoting hormone implants is very much an optional part of a preconditioning program.
Implants improve performance and feed efficiency and can improve profitability when cattle are retained long enough to take advantage of these improvements. “In a strong cattle market where each pound of gain has great value, implanting may be worth considering,” he says. “Keep in mind the new FDA guidance and emphasis on not reimplanting within a phase of production unless the implant product is specifically labeled for reimplantation.”
He explains with this recent development, some buyers might prefer cattle that have not been implanted, so it may be worth thinking through the value of enhanced performance versus buyer preferences and demand at market.
5. Adapt cattle to feed like what will be fed after weaning.
“Creep feeding consistently increases weaning weight but may or may not be profitable depending on the cost versus value of gain,” Clark explains. “In the current market with significant value for every pound of gain, creep feeding may be worth considering.”
Even when not obviously profitable, creep feeding or some kind of supplementation can help calves adapt to new feeds and feeding systems. This should support a smoother transition throughout weaning. Postweaning feeding programs should be well-balanced to support health and growth but modest enough to prevent foot and rumen issues and over-conditioning of animals.
“Buyers generally like cattle to be relatively ‘green,’ meaning they prefer to buy cattle that are not overly fat,” he adds.
6. Weaning is considered by some to be an integral part of the preconditioning process.
In fact, in some sponsored preconditioning programs, cattle are not truly preconditioned if not weaned for 45 to 60 days. Weaning allows producers to start cattle on feed, adapt them to the next phase of production, and treat any illnesses that might occur.
Consider low-stress weaning strategies such as two-step weaning, fence-line weaning, pasture weaning, etc., and think ahead about what might work for you. Weaned cattle should be past some of the most stressful and high-risk times and ready to enter the next phase of production.
7. Strive for excellence in the basics of animal husbandry. Shelter, shade, bedding, water, feed, and low-stress handling are all components of good animal care, and the most well-preconditioned animals are those that have been well-taken-care-of from conception to marketing.
8. Daily care and record keeping are key components of preconditioning.
Create a plan for performing and keeping records of daily care, and develop a record-keeping system for treatment and feed records.
“Plan to check cattle daily throughout the weaning phase to look for signs of illness, develop a working relationship with a veterinarian and establish a treatment plan in case of illness,” Clark says.
Review recommended biosecurity protocols and implement as appropriate to protect the health of your calf crop. Prepare records that can be shared with buyers so they understand how cattle have been cared for, what products have been administered and what procedures have been done.
Clark summarizes preconditioning does several things. First, it enhances animal health, well-being, and performance, and increases the odds that cattle will perform to their genetic potential. Additionally, preconditioning minimizes risk.
“In the current record-breaking cattle market, cattle are more valuable than ever, and with great value comes great risk,” he says. “Every illness, every mortality, every bout of weight loss and shrink hurts that much more than it would in a weaker market.”
Preconditioning can help manage that risk and improve the likelihood of success for producers in all phases of production. Consider preconditioning to optimize cattle health and performance and promote the success of buyers of your cattle.
Early Pregnancy Checking and Culling Open Heifers Improves Efficiency, Bottom Line
University of Missouri Extension
“There are many benefits to early pregnancy checking replacement heifers,” says Patrick Davis, University of Missouri (MU) Extension livestock field specialist. The Show-Me-Select (SMS) Replacement Heifer Program, which is considered the “black and gold standard” for replacement heifer development, requires pregnancy checking heifers within 90 days of the beginning of the breeding season.
“Early pregnancy checking allows more accurate determination of days pregnant and calving date of your heifers,” says Davis. Once the pregnancy is more than 90 days, the fetus slips over the pelvic rim and days pregnant determination becomes less accurate. By knowing the most accurate calving date, you can be better prepared if issues happen during calving. Also, if the veterinarian is using ultrasound, fetal sex determination is possible between 60 and 90 days pregnant.
Recent analysis of SMS sale data from 2018 to 2024 by Martins and Rocha Jr. showed an average sale premium of $143 per heifer for fetal sex determination. Therefore, if you are selling heifers, incorporating fetal sex determination into your early pregnancy checking protocol may improve the sale price of your heifers.
“It is important to cull heifers that failed to conceive in their first breeding season to promote optimum cattle operation reproductive efficiency,” says Davis. Montana research, shared in an Oklahoma State University communication, showed that heifers that did not conceive during their first breeding season averaged a 55% annual calf crop throughout their lifetime. Also, Moorey and Biase in a 2020 review article, commented, sourcing three
research papers, that heifer reproductive success in the first calving season is highly linked with lifetime reproductive efficiency. Therefore, cull these open heifers to promote optimum cattle operation reproductive efficiency.
“Cull these open heifers as soon as possible to get optimum salvage value,” says Davis. Heifers that enter the breeding season at approximately 14 months should be approximately 18 months at pregnancy check time and can still be marketed to meet the choice grade. If culling is delayed and heifers are marketed later, their value may be reduced due to inability to reach the choice grade. Therefore, check for pregnancy early and market open heifers as soon as possible for optimum salvage value.
“Marketing these open heifers as soon as possible also helps reduce the negative impact on feed resources,” says Davis. Feeding unproductive animals is wasteful and hurts your operation’s bottom line. Davis suggests culling these open heifers and replacing them with productive females to improve production efficiency and operation bottom line.
Furthermore, if you sell bred replacement heifers, incorporate fetal sexing into your early pregnancy checking protocol to potentially receive premiums for your heifers. For more information on early pregnancy checking replacement heifers and the benefits, contact your local MU Extension livestock field specialist. .
